Heavy Sports’ AI-based predictions indicate stronger confidence in Michigan defeating Alabama in the upcoming Rose Bowl compared to the consensus from Vegas. Heavy’s analytics, fueled by Quarter 4, suggest a 60 percent likelihood for the top-ranked Wolverines to overcome the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide. Despite anticipating a tight game, Heavy’s predicted margin—Michigan by 3.5 points—expresses more optimism for the Wolverines than what various online sportsbooks indicate.
Key differences between Heavy’s projections and the Vegas consensus include:
1. Heavy’s Favoritism Toward Michigan:
Both Heavy’s forecasts and the majority of sportsbooks foresee a closely contested Michigan-Alabama game, with the Rose Bowl expected to be a one-possession match. However, Heavy’s model notably differs from sportsbook spreads. As of late Tuesday, while most sportsbooks had Michigan’s spread at 1.5 points, Heavy’s projection stood at 3.5 points, barring one sportsbook at 2 points. Additionally, Heavy anticipates a slightly higher-scoring game compared to the consensus among sportsbooks.
2. Michigan’s Dominance This Season:
Michigan has displayed dominance throughout the season, boasting a 13-0 record and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 27.2 points. Their closest contest was a 30-24 victory over Ohio State. In contrast, Alabama (12-1) had a smaller average margin of victory (16.7) and faced tougher challenges, including a loss to Texas and several narrow wins.
Regarding the other national semifinal between Washington and Texas in the Sugar Bowl, both Heavy and ESPN models favor Texas to win. However, Heavy’s model assigns a 56 percent probability to Texas, while ESPN’s model gives a significantly higher 69.2 percent likelihood. Moreover, Heavy’s projected spread for the game—Texas by 2—differs from the sportsbook consensus, which shows Texas favored by 4 or 4.5 points across various books.
