Following a brief period of diminished performance, during which they secured only two points from three league games…
Following a brief period of diminished performance, during which they secured only two points from three league games and suffered a loss to non-league Maidstone in the FA Cup, Ipswich has regained their momentum by clinching victory in six consecutive matches.
Their upcoming opponents, Cardiff City, are currently enjoying a decent run of form with three consecutive wins. However, a closer look at the underlying data reveals that their accumulation of points may be attributed to a stroke of luck. Specifically, in terms of expected goals scored (xG), Cardiff stands out as the only team in the division with an average xG difference of -0.5 or worse per match, both at home and away, over the last six matches and the entire season under the current manager.
In their most recent three home matches, Cardiff maintained an average xG difference of -0.76 and yet managed to secure seven points. Notably, these matches were against teams positioned at 17th (Blackburn Rovers), 21st (Huddersfield Town), and 22nd (Stoke City) places in the table. Statistical analysis indicates that Cardiff was exceptionally fortunate to accumulate points against opponents situated towards the lower end of the league table.
Ipswich is currently engaged in a tussle for automatic promotion with two other teams, both of which have already visited Cardiff and emerged victorious. Leicester secured a 2-0 win, while Leeds triumphed with a 3-0 scoreline. In fact, Cardiff has faced defeat in all four home matches against teams in the top seven positions.
