The Yankees’ Aaron Judge, currently on fire, is on track for another pursuit of a home run record in 2024.
Babe Ruth remains the only American League hitter to have broken his own single-season home run record, a feat that perhaps doesn’t surprise anyone considering Ruth’s legendary status in baseball history.
But is it too early to speculate whether Aaron Judge will follow in the footsteps of the Bambino by the end of 2024?
There’s a compelling argument to answer with a resounding “yes,” and it revolves around Judge’s current pace compared to his record-setting season in 2022 when he smashed 62 homers, surpassing both Ruth and Roger Maris.
While Judge had 25 home runs through the New York Yankees’ first 62 games in 2022, he currently stands at 21 homers at the same point in 2024. He’s on track for “only” 55 home runs, assuming he plays in all 162 games.
However, it’s worth noting that Judge is currently on fire. He’s displaying a level of performance reminiscent of his peak in 2022. In a span between May 5 and June 1, he hit 15 home runs, matching his most productive stretch from July to August 2022.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone commented on Judge’s exceptional form after the 32-year-old blasted his MLB-leading 21st homer on Saturday in San Francisco. Boone noted the stark difference between Judge and other players, emphasizing that when Judge connects with the ball, it often results in home runs.
Although it may seem premature to eagerly check box scores every morning to see if Judge homered the previous night, given his current momentum, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could reach 30 homers before the end of June.
One contributing factor to Judge’s success is the quality of pitches he’s seeing. He’s encountering more pitches in the strike zone compared to 2022, which can be attributed to the strong hitters surrounding him in the Yankees’ lineup.
Furthermore, Judge is hitting the ball harder and farther this year, with an increased exit velocity and longer average fly ball distance. He’s also reducing the number of ground balls he hits, which bodes well for his home run potential.
Despite initially struggling to utilize his pull side earlier in the season, Judge has made adjustments with the guidance of hitting coach James Rowson. His recent performance suggests that he’s back on track, with several of his hits resulting in home runs.
While predicting Judge to break his own home run record may seem ambitious, given the rarity of 60-homer seasons in MLB history, Judge’s current trajectory and statistical performance suggest that he’s capable of achieving this feat. With advanced metrics rating him as one of the most dangerous hitters in the last decade, Judge’s potential for surpassing his previous record cannot be overlooked.
