You observed the Baltimore Ravens’ decisive victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, witnessing the Ravens’ commanding 33-19 win on the road, leading by a substantial 21 points late in the game. Following such a convincing performance, it was hard to argue that the 11-4 49ers are superior to the 12-3 Ravens.
However, oddsmakers have remained steadfast in their stance.
There was a significant shift in MVP odds, propelling Lamar Jackson to the forefront while distancing Brock Purdy from contention. Nevertheless, there wasn’t a substantial adjustment in the Super Bowl odds.
Surprisingly, despite the 49ers’ recent home defeat by the Ravens, they still maintain the lead over Baltimore in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds, which might seem perplexing.
The current Super Bowl odds with two weeks remaining in the regular season convey several insights. Firstly, oddsmakers aren’t entirely convinced that the Ravens are the favorites for the Super Bowl. They also haven’t given up on the struggling Kansas City Chiefs. As we approach 2024, the Super Bowl race appears fairly open:
49ers +240
Ravens +400
Chiefs +800
Dolphins +800
Eagles +800
Cowboys +1000
Bills +1100
Remarkably, the 49ers maintain their favored status, and it’s a notable margin.
The oddsmakers’ objective isn’t to forecast outcomes; rather, it’s to establish lines that attract balanced action among teams and mitigate potential significant losses for sportsbooks. One reason why sportsbooks are hesitant to demote the 49ers behind the Ravens is the expectation of an influx of bets on the 49ers at longer odds.
In essence, despite the events of Monday night, the betting market retains its belief in the 49ers.
The question arises: why aren’t the Ravens the favored team? Before Monday night’s game, the 49ers appeared to be the NFL’s top team, securing resounding victories against some of the league’s best, including the Cowboys and Eagles. They boasted explosive offensive talent complemented by a strong defense.
The lesson gleaned from the current Super Bowl odds is not to overreact to a single poor performance, or perhaps it’s an acknowledgment that the Ravens represent a good value bet. Regardless, one significant outcome did not significantly sway oddsmakers’ opinions of the 49ers. There’s substance in that approach.
Additionally, Super Bowl odds involve more than just determining which team is superior. The 49ers have a considerably better chance to clinch the NFC’s top seed compared to the Ravens, who might relinquish that spot if they stumble against the Dolphins. The cluster of AFC contenders behind the Ravens might be stronger than the NFC counterparts behind the 49ers, theoretically paving an easier path for San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl. All these elements factor into the Super Bowl odds.
Nonetheless, it’s rather surprising to witness the 49ers topping the charts even after their home defeat by a Ravens team with a superior record. It represents a calculated risk by the oddsmakers themselves.
